Quantifying the incidence of severe-febrileillness hospital admissions in sub-Saharan Africa

Paul Roddy, Ursula Dalrymple, Tomas O. Jensen, Sabine Dittrich, V. Bhargavi Rao, Daniel A. Pfeffer, Katherine A. Twohig, Teri Roberts, Oscar Bernal, Ethan Guillen

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Abstract

Severe-febrile-illness (SFI) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The burden of SFI in SSA is currently unknown and its estimation is fraught with challenges. This is due to a lack of diagnostic capacity for SFI in SSA, and thus a dearth of baseline data on the underlying etiology of SFI cases and scant SFI-specific causativeagent prevalence data. To highlight the public health significance of SFI in SSA, we developed a Bayesian model to quantify the incidence of SFI hospital admissions in SSA. Our estimates indicate a mean population-weighted SFI-inpatient-admission incidence rate of 18.4 (6.8-31.1, 68% CrI) per 1000 people for the year 2014, across all ages within areas of SSA with stable Plasmodium falciparum transmission. We further estimated a total of 16,200,337 (5,993,249-27,321,779, 68% CrI) SFI hospital admissions. This analysis reveals the significant burden of SFI in hospitals in SSA, but also highlights the paucity of pathogen-specific prevalence and incidence data for SFI in SSA. Future improvements in pathogen-specific diagnostics for causative agents of SFI will increase the abundance of SFI-specific prevalence and incidence data, aid future estimations of SFI burden, and enable clinicians to identify SFI-specific pathogens, administer appropriate treatment and management, and facilitate appropriate antibiotic use.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0220371
Pages (from-to)1-19
Number of pages19
JournalPLoS ONE
Volume14
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 25 Jul 2019

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